Terry's New email address for this site is terry@ttheory.com
The chart for August 31 with next days Calculation is presented in the Saturday tutorial for the volume oscillator calculation below-Updated.
For T Theory Tutorials go to this link T Theory Foundation
Special Update Sept 2 2009 Listen to the audio here Download TTO20090902
Update for Sunday August 30 2009 If the audio server becomes overloaded and rejects your request just come back in an hour or so. Jeffery Young has provided a PDF of his A-D Ts Download Advance_Decline T Drawing and comments " Take a look at the different T's I drew (attachment) using different center post dates for the A/D line. Quite a few of them come out but the interesting T is the green one that would mature on Sept 14th which is within a day or two of the maturity of the mystery volume oscillator T. I could be wrong but it is likely more than just coincidence. The Chinese market may also be tracing what might happen here with the recent high (our September high) and the steep drop and then moving to a new high a month or so later (our maturing of the October T). Just some thoughts and possible outcomes. I would not be surprised if the China A/D line had similar T's since they printed earlier than ours and became leading examples due to the strength of their economy." Jeffrey Young jeffreyisyoung@yahoo.com
Daily Chart with Ts Download SRT20090818wts
Terry's Audio Commentary of the T Theory Forecast: Download TTO20090830commentary
Terry's Questions and Answers for the week Download TTO20090830Q&A
George's web site George Rahal
Comment I am writing you today because I began my own blog, and I use an loose version of your T-theory. I reference you when I use it, but I realized that you may not want someone else posting blogs using your method. I will include some links of how I used them. If you have a problem with this, let me know, and I will remove the posts. Also, for your information, I use Ts when day trading. I create intra-day Ts based on on balance volume. I find they work very well 65-75% of the time. They can range from a few hours to 50 minutes.
Thank you, George
'-------------------
Sept 1 The calculation procedures are revised below and sample calculation will be made daily this week.
Update for Saturday August 29 2009 This weekend I am providing an update that includes the popular request for calculation assistance for the volume oscillator which follows below. The starting point is the chart data so that link comes first. The procedure may yet have some bugs, send corrections to my email address. To be continued Sunday
Download SRT090828
Calculation of the T Theory Daily Volume Oscillator
To calculate the progression of the blue Volume Oscillator as depicted in my daily chart above you need to recalculate the 18 day and 36 day Volume oscillator values that are noted in the chart for each successive day beyond this chart's history. The formulas used are very simple because they are based on exponential moving averages and use recursive equations that are easy to implement in any spreadsheet software package. Click on the chart PDF image for a view of the daily August 28 2009 volume oscillator indicators at the top of the chart.
I am providing these examples of daily calculations in the daily chart which you can use to check your own calculations or restart the process. I won't have time to answer specific questions but of course I will make any corrections and listen to suggestions on improvements. If you have an arithmetic problem, it should be easy to find someone that understand the simple math involved. Using a simple spreadsheet is best; it is easy to set up, fast to use, and makes the arithmetic error free.
Super trader Marty Schwartz who used this oscillator for some decades claims that one is better prepared to use the day to day pattern for finding bottoms or tops if you plot the oscillator values by hand on real graph paper. Watching the pattern for tops and bottoms evolve from one day to the next gives one better perspective on how this volume oscillator tends to anticipate changes in price trends. The computer generated chart is helpful, but he claims the day to day plot helps to get the better feel for it's leading characteristics.
Each day after the market close you will need to obtain the net on balance volume data for the NY Exchange. This can be obtained anywhere but is conveniently available on the web in a market summary section. The data is almost always in a Market Diaries section. See this recommended page Markets Diary: Closing Snapshot - Markets Data Center - WSJ.com
Be sure you find the number of millions of share traded on the advancing stocks (called the Up volume) and the number of millions of share traded on the Declining stocks ( called the Down Volume) . These numbers will typically run in the range of 300 to 1200. The Up Volume minus the Down Volume = the net volume for the day (in millions of shares) is the only day's number needed to complete the calculation. The number should be positive on an up day, negative on a down day and tends to vary in the range of plus 900 to minus 900.
But to keep the final number in a better range for plotting by hand on graph paper, I take this raw net volume and divide it by 10. So this Reduced Net Volume Change figure is the value we actually use in the calculation. When charted the volume oscillator generally falls in the 100 plus or minus range which more convenient for plotting.
The Calculation of the next day's 18 Day Volume Oscillator is simply a modification of the prior day's value of the 18 Day Volume Oscillator using the new day's Reduced Net Volume number:
Today's 18 Day Volume Oscillator = 90% of Yesterdays 18 Day Volume Oscillator +1 times Today's Reduced Net Volume.
Today's 36 Day Volume Oscillator = 95% of Yesterday's 36 Day Volume Oscillator 0.5 times Today's Reduced Net Volume.
To Illustrate the calculation I will discuss how the next days Volume Oscillator value would be calculated from the August 28 2009 data in the chart.
For August 28 2009 the chart notes the 18 Day VO= 259.8 and the 36 Day VO= 227.9. The blue Volume Oscillator we really want is always equal to 18 Day VO -36 Day VO, that is (259.8-227.9) = +31.8 according to the chart but should be 31.9 according to readings. The discrepancy is just a round off error in the chart's print process.
Monday August 31 saw the Up Volume was 273 million shares, and the Down Volume was = 1094 million shares; the Net Volume for Monday would be 273-1094= -821 and the Reduced Net Volume therefore would be plus -82 (-82.1 more precisely but not necessary).
The August 31 18 Day Volume Oscillator is always = 90% of Yesterdays 18 Day Volume Oscillator (259.8) +1 time Todays Net Volume (-84).
So = 259.8 times 0.9 (which is 233.8) + (-82) times 1 (which is -82)= 233.8 + -82 which equals 137 for the 18 Day Volume Oscillator
The August 31 Day Volume Oscillator always = 95% of Yesterdays 36 Day Volume Oscillator +0.5 times Todays Net Volume .
So 227.9 times .95 (which is 216.5) + -84 times 0.5 (which is 41) =216.5-41 which equals 175 for the 36 Day Volume Oscillator
So for August 31 this sample calculation, the final Volume Oscillator calculation would be Today's 18 Day VO - Todays 36 Day VO, that is 137-175= -37 .
For Sept 1 up volume=90 mill Down vol =1533 Net =-1443; Net Reduced=-144
18 day vo=136(151 times 0.9)-144= -8; 36 day vo= 166 (175 times 0.95)-72( -144 times 0.5)=94; VO= -8-94= -102
will continue these daily calcs this week here.
Download SRT20090831
Terry Laundry
Quick Update for Wed Aug 26: T Theory tutorials are now available at ttheoryfoundation.org or use link here: T Theory Foundation
Hint: Let the audio download progress until it is complete before clicking on the play button. If you don't and have a slow connection the audio may abort. Some features are not yet implemented however you can email questions/comments on the tutorial subject matter to my Foundation Mailbox. More on Sunday
Update for Sunday August 23 2009 Today's Topics include; T Theory Tutorial coming this week, a look at the Volume Oscillator S&P chart vs the Advance-Decline Line S&P chart and their relationship, the volume oscillator Mystery T, the need to understand the volume oscillator wave pattern in detail, and my response to most all of the questions received last week. Look over the two daily PDF charts then listen to my long Audio Commentary.
S&PvsVolOsc TDownload SRvoT20090823
S&PvsA-D line Download SRadT20090821
Audio Commentary Download TTO20090823
Next update coming on Sunday by late afternoon
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quick update for August 18 2009- The reaction should be finding a bottom here or over the next few days. Watch for turning pattern in the oscillator or the market. Market should see new highs by early Sept.
Update for Sunday August 16 2009 Today's Topics include; Questions and my Answers (Q&A) to; what happens after Oct, where do I learn about T Theory, Greg asks "Marty:day trader or T Theory", what about rally last week, where to get data for volume oscillator, what about Gold, why is Oct peak is in seasonally weak period, Ji comments by Marty in Stock Wizards, etc.
Audio Download TTO20090816
Today's Chart Download SRT20090814
Audio Correction; it was Greg not Jeff who asked about day trading vs T Theory
For Stock Wizards article go to:
Market Wizards: Interviews with Top ... - Google Books
Markets Diary: Closing Snapshot - Markets Data Center - WSJ.com
About Oscillator calculation from Rick ( It was 12180/1000= 12.1 error is due to data differences-Terry)
Thanks for your help here as I am beating my head against the wall. From the website
http://www.mcoscillator.com/data/osc_data/OSC-DATA.xls I am taking data from the NYSE UV-DV column as the starting point or should I use the McClellan UV-DV OSc column then divide by 10?
| McClellan Volume Oscillator |
| NYSE | 10% | 5% | McC | McC VOL | UV-DV FOR | UV-DV FOR |
| UV-DV | TREND | TREND | UV-DV | SUMMATION | OSC UNCH'D | OSC TO 0 |
| (x 1000) | UV-DV | UV-DV | OSC | INDEX | TOMORROW | TOMORROW |
| 948490 | 309845 | 203881 | 105964 | 1085132 | 415809 | -1703474 |
| 420739 | 320935 | 214724 | 106211 | 1191343 | 427145 | -1697068 |
| 807538 | 369595 | 244365 | 125230 | 1316573 | 494825 | -2009781 |
| -17631 | 330872 | 231265 | 99607 | 1416181 | 430480 | -1561670 |
| 867914 | 384576 | 263097 | 121479 | 1537660 | 506056 | -1923528 |
| 19721 | 348091 | 250928 | 97162 | 1634822 | 445253 | -1497996 |
| -738718 | 239410 | 201446 | 37964 | 1672786 | 277374 | -481904 |
| 730227 | 288492 | 227885 | 60607 | 1733393 | 349098 | -863033 |
| 381409 | 297783 | 235561 | 62222 | 1795615 | 360006 | -884436 |
| -640835 | 203922 | 191742 | 12180 | 1807795 | 216102 | -27500 |
Feel like I am close to getting this right and once it is then their will be an updated template for others to use as well.
Rick
Update for Sunday August 9 2009 Today's Topics include; The very short term way of looking at T Theory as per the comments above;
First we will look at the Short Term picture using the A-D Line then I will comment on the small T, etc.
Daily A-D Chart Download SRTad20090807
Audio Commentary Download TTO20090809a
Then we will take the same history in terms of the volume oscillator and look at it from Marty's very short term trading perspective, maybe 7 days or so.
Daily Vol Chart Download SRTvo20090807
Daily Audio Vol Chart Commentary Download TTO20090809b
Finally I will answer the question of when a top to the China market might occur and why my volume oscillator numbers don't quite match those of McClellan site noted at the bottom of these charts.
Q and A has been re-recorded due to a mic problem.
Audio Q and A Download TTO20090809c
Send any new questions or comments to terry.laundry@comcast.net
Next update next Sunday August 16
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Update for Sunday August 2 2009 Today's Topics include;
1. Discussion of the small black T in the AD Line chart that calls for a small, short correction next week.
2. A review of my companies July 31 2009 report and introduction to the concept of "benchmarking".
See the daily Indicator PDF chart below then listen to the audio commentary that follows:
Then read my one page report to clients that begins to talk about strategies and other concepts to maximize the longer term A-D Line Ts rate of return for investments and the Audio Commentary that follows.
Next Update Sunday Aug 9
T Theory Observations for March 2009
Update for Monday March 30 2009 See the Daily Indicator Chart at the right Download SRT090327
then listen to the audio update here Download TTO20090330
Update for Monday March 23 2009 See the Daily Indicator Chart at the right Download SRT090320
then listen to the audio update here Download TTO090323
Next Update Monday March 30
--------------------------------------
Update for Monday March 16 2009 See the Daily Indicator Chart at the right Download SRT090313 then listen to the audio update here.Download TTO090316
Special topic that follows shows charts of the bear market trends for the 1929-32 bear market and the 1973-74 bear market all relative to the 55 day MA .
Download 1929-1932 Bear Market for Dow Industrials
Download 1973-1974 Bear Market
See the two charts above then the audio commentary below.
Download Observations090316BearTrends1929and1973
Next Update Monday March 23
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Update Note March 12 2009- Strength today will confirm a new T but I think the rally will prove very dangerous to follow. Terry
Update for Monday March 9 2009 (update Complete)
See Daily Indicator Chart at the right.Download SRT090306
Then listen to this mp3 audio commentary...Download Audio Obs090309
Next Update Monday March 16
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Update for Monday March 2 2009 (update completed)
March 02, 2009 in General Comments | Permalink