Terry Laundry's T Theory Observations

Terry Laundry's T Theory Observations for December 2009

…Of everything I read Terry Laundry’s Magic T Theory made the most sense to me. …Terry was an eccentric genius living out on Nantucket Island. He was a fellow Marine, a jughead, who’d graduated from MIT and was now using his considerable engineering skills to analyze the market. Terry believed that the market spent the same amount of time going up as it did going down…When you look at the letter T, hence, the Magic T Theory…With the Magic T there was order in the universe a high and low tide every…The Magic T and I became as one.

- Marty Schwartz, legendary trader and author of the “Pit Bull"

Welcome to Terry Laundry's T Theory Observations site which provides T Theory Updates each Sunday afternoon. These updates are brought to you by Terry's Management company American Shareholders OnLine. This link provides background info on T Theory and its application to investment management. 

For introductory T Theory Tutorials go to this link T Theory Foundation .  For Daily updates go to this link at T Theory Foundation  then to the Calculation page for the latest daily chart and my short daily comment posted by 8AM ET the following morning. 

Terry's New email address for this site is terry@ttheory.com with a link at the upper left. I will try to answer your questions as time and circumstances permit. The  tutorial for the volume  oscillator calculation is at the Saturday August 29 2009 post below. 

Update for Sunday December 13 2009. Todays discussion  looks at the recent upside breakout in the AD Line and the concept of the MacGuffin  in investment themes.

See the PDF chart Download ADTsCurrent  then listen to the Download TTO20091213A Audio

Then see the Download ADLineTs20091211  chart and listen to the  Download TTO20091213b  Audio

Update for Sunday December 6 2009. Today I have expanded the 1966 to 2009 basic A-D T chart presentation to include all important Ts detailed in the tutorials in order to answer some  reader questions and better put the big picture more clearly into perspective. I had planned to answer some detailed technical questions today but I am postponing them until next week.

As usual look at the first PDF Chart then listen to its Audio Commentary. You should be able to have the chart visible while the audio is playing.  

Chart Download ADTs20091204  and its Audio Commentary Download TTO20091206ADts

Then move on to the detailed AD T  Chart and its commentary.

Download ADT #13 20091204  And its Audio Commentary  Download TTO20091206 ShortTerm

Terry Laundry's T Theory Observations for November 2009

…Of everything I read Terry Laundry’s Magic T Theory made the most sense to me. …Terry was an eccentric genius living out on Nantucket Island. He was a fellow Marine, a jughead, who’d graduated from MIT and was now using his considerable engineering skills to analyze the market. Terry believed that the market spent the same amount of time going up as it did going down…When you look at the letter T, hence, the Magic T Theory…With the Magic T there was order in the universe a high and low tide every…The Magic T and I became as one.

- Marty Schwartz, legendary trader and author of the “Pit Bull"

Welcome to Terry Laundry's T Theory Observations site which provides T Theory Updates each Sunday afternoon. These updates are brought to you by Terry's Management company American Shareholders OnLine. This link provides background info on T Theory and its application to investment management. 

For introductory T Theory Tutorials go to this link T Theory Foundation  .  For end of day updates go to this link at T Theory Foundation  then to the Calculation page for the chart/data and my short daily comment posted about 6:30PM ET. 

Terry's New email address for this site is terry@ttheory.com with a link at the upper left. I will try to answer your questions as time and circumstances permit. The  tutorial for the volume  oscillator calculation is at the Saturday August 29 2009 post below. 

Update for Sunday November 29 2009. Today covers many longer range topics that help to answer the shorter term T Theory forecast which remains very bullish. Look at the 3 chart PDF files below then listen to the 4 Audio commentaries that follow.

Long Range Ts Chart Download ADTSCurrent ; Chart Download ADT13 with first Echo091127 ;

 Chart Download FAGIX vs GOLD YTD091127

Audio Commentary on Long Range Ts  Download TTO20091129A

Audio Commentary on 8 Year Cycle   Download TTO20091129B

Audio Commentary on First Echo Analysis Download TTO20091129C

Audio Commentary on Sector Benchmarks Download TTO20091129D

Update for Sunday November 22 2009. Today I present a new and very fundamental T Theory chart showing the details of the A-D Line Ts from 1966 to the present, along with its key  8 year cycle. The development of this computer program has occupied me for the last two weeks and it is not finalized yet so please withhold questions for now. Then we have have the regular short term chart. Look over the two charts then listen to the two audio commentaries that follow.

Chart Download LongRangeADTs091120            Chart Download SRT20091120

Audio Download TTO20091122adTs            Audio   Download TTO20091122SRT

Update for Sunday November 15 2009.  Today I present the AD T's case for a major up move starting very soon, first using the latest Advance-Decline T in the first PDf chart then refining it in the regular Daily Short Range T PDF  Chart. Look over the charts then listen to the audio commentary that follows.

Download Current Advance Decline T     Download SRT20091115

ADT CommentaryDownload TTO20091115ADT  Short T Commentary  Download TTO20091115SRT

Update for Sunday November 8 2009. Today we update the forecast of a key low in the late November time period and our long term bullish outlook for Gold. I will try to answer email questions in the audio commentary as we go along. First note the PDF Daily T Chart below then listen to the mp3 audio commentary that follows. For Daily Chart  Download SRT20091106  For the audio commentary Download TTO20091108Mkt.

Next download the long term gold Bullion plot with its Long Range T forecast, then listen to the audio commentary. For the Long Term T Theory Gold Chart Download Gold T 1972-2009 then listen to the audio commentary  that follows here Download TTO20091108Gold.

Terry Laundry's T Theory Observations for October 2009

…Of everything I read Terry Laundry’s Magic T Theory made the most sense to me. …Terry was an eccentric genius living out on Nantucket Island. He was a fellow Marine, a jughead, who’d graduated from MIT and was now using his considerable engineering skills to analyze the market. Terry believed that the market spent the same amount of time going up as it did going down…When you look at the letter T, hence, the Magic T Theory…With the Magic T there was order in the universe a high and low tide every…The Magic T and I became as one.

- Marty Schwartz, legendary trader and author of the “Pit Bull"

Terry's New email address for this site is terry@ttheory.com   The  tutorial for the volume  oscillator calculation is at the Saturday August 29 2009 post below  For T Theory Tutorials go to this link T Theory Foundation    For Info on American Shareholders go to American Shareholders OnLine.

For end of day updates go to this link T Theory Foundation  then to the Calculation page for the chart/data and my short daily comment about 6:30PM ET.

Update for Saturday October 31 2009 For today's discussion we have two charts below; the first for the near term outlook using my regular daily charts, the second for the longer term Ts. See these charts or download them if you wish, then listen to my audio commentary, part A for the first chart, part B for the long term chart. Helpful Hint for Windows users; I have been told that if you are not getting the audio stream to work for you, right click on the audio link and it will download the audio file to your computer, after which you can play it. Daily Updates will continue at the Foundation site as noted above.

Daily Chart Download SRT20091030

Audio Commentary for the Daily Chart above Download TTO20091031A

Longer Range T Chart for Bond Fund and China Fund Download FAGIX vs MCHFX abcdTs

Audio Commentary for the Fund Chart above Download TTO20091031B

Update for Sunday October 25 2009 For today's discussion see the two charts below; the first for Best Bond, the second for the standard T Theory indicator chart. The audio discussions for part A and B relate to the discussion I had with Peter Eliades last week. I hope these topics help to answer a variety of email questions I have received. Part C is my general forecast which will be refined by the end of day updates, as noted above, that will come  by 6:30 pm ET at the Foundation site.

Table Chart Download BestBondpdf 

Daily Chart Download SRT20091023

Audio Commentaries:

First Audio Download TTO20091025A

Second Audio Download TTO20091025B

Third Audio Download TTO20091025C

Update for Sunday October 18 2009 Today we have just one chart with data added and a number of discussions that help resolve questions I have received. First Download the new Chart below.

New Daily Chart Download SRT20091016

Then Listen to the three Audio Commentaries below.

Summary Commentary  Download TTO20091018A

Projection Commentary  Download TTO20091018B

New Projects Commentary  Download TTO20091018C

Update for Wednesday evening Oct 14; Todays strong gain meets nearly all the peak requirements for the ABCD T construction on a closing basis. The date is within range and the market is at token new highs above the Mystery T's mid September peak. The closing S&P is just shy of the upper envelop target level of 1106 but that might be reached tomorrow. The very short term T on Sunday can have its center date more later by one day so it is possible we have seen the momentum peak today and the upside  strength will rapidly dissipate.

Update for Sunday October 11 2009 Lots to talk about today in the two charts below and the extended commentary which confirms  top projection Oct 12 to Oct 14 as per last weeks notes. Then we move on to explaining T Theory in term of "echos" to better explain the longer term outlook into August 2010.

Daily Chart Download SRT20091009

15 Minute S&P Chart Download SPX15min091009

Forecast Audio Commentary Download TTO20091011A

Historical Audio Commentary Download TTO20091011B

T Theory Echo Concepts   Download TTO20091011C (in the later part of this audio I mis-spoke the B  bottom when I meant the C bottom relative to late October and post September 2007)

Oct 9th Morning Note: Jim reports:

From your PDF file, using 15 minute real time data, it looks like "A"
occurred on 3/19/09 @ 9:30 AM (S&P 803.24) and "B" occurred on 6/23/09 at
11:00 AM (S&P 888.86). This represents a 68 day, 2 hr time lapse from "A" to
"B".
The subsequent July low "C" (S&P 870.05) occurred on 7/8/09 @ 12:15.
Therefore, the October high "D" looks like it may occur on 10/12/09 @ 14:15.

Looks good to me...Terry

Oct 8  note: I am changing my outlook back to the original forecast of an important peak and selling point on Oct 12 13 14 as below. The performance on Thursday was negative in my view as we are losing momentum and the volume oscillator is probably topping at the zero line. Details on next Sunday's regular Update.

Oct 5 after close note: The mid Oct peak(D) is being estimated as Oct 12, 13, or 14th. It is positive that the Arms selling climax and Wrong Ts bottom date has halted the slide to the 55 Day MA. Should be headed up from here.

Update for Sunday October 4 2009  Expect Low early next week (Monday) intraday at S&P 500 cash 1008 then rally to mid October high sell point. See long discussion in three  audio parts with two PDF Charts.

Chart Download SRT20091002WrongT

Chart Download TTO20091004ADT

Audio Comment Part A Download TTO20091004 A Intro

Audio Comment Part B Download TTO20091004Projects

Audio Comment Part C Download TTO20091004ADT

Download TTO20091004Projects

Terry Laundry's T Theory Observations for September 2009

…Of everything I read Terry Laundry’s Magic T Theory made the most sense to me. …Terry was an eccentric genius living out on Nantucket Island. He was a fellow Marine, a jughead, who’d graduated from MIT and was now using his considerable engineering skills to analyze the market. Terry believed that the market spent the same amount of time going up as it did going down…When you look at the letter T, hence, the Magic T Theory…With the Magic T there was order in the universe a high and low tide every…The Magic T and I became as one.

- Marty Schwartz, legendary trader and author of the “Pit Bull"

Terry's New email address for this site is terry@ttheory.com   The  tutorial for the volume  oscillator calculation is at the Saturday August 29 2009 post below  For T Theory Tutorials go to this link T Theory Foundation 

Update for Thursday October 1 2009

5pm: arms closed at 3.6 a very bullish reading. Market should stabilize then turn up to mid Oct peak.

11am If todays opening weakness gathers strength it is possible the market will find an oversold low near the 55 Day MA( S&P 1007). However that is a worst case.  Either way look for a rally to a mid October final top.

Update for Sunday September 27 2009  See PDF Chart and listen to Audio Commentary. See also  American Shareholders OnLine

Chart Download SRT20090925

Audio Commentary Download TTO20090927

Update for Thursday morning September 24 2009 : Sell off on Wed produced a favorable  Arms of 2.3 and we still have upside left timewise. Upper channel at S&P 1089 cash price and rising.

Update for Sunday September 20 2009 Question; Last week you drew in a new Short-Term T on the Daily Chart and said it expires about the end of the 3rd week of Sept.  You appeared to draft the T from the Volume Oscillator, with a Centerpost at the 9/2 low in the VO and the left side of the T looking back to the recent 8/5 high in the VO.  I calculalte 20 TRADING DAYS between the two dates, taking the right side of the T to OCTOBER 1st -- not the third week in Sept. 

 ALTERNATIVE METHOD:  Drafting the T from A-D Line high on 8/13 to its low on 9/2 counts out to 14 TRADING DAYS, placing the terminal date on A-D T @ 9/21 -- three weeks into September.  

 I'm trying to chart these Ts, and I'm confused.  The T you drew on the Daily Short-Term Chart was clearly drafted off the Volume Oscillator.  WHICH IS THE RIGHT WAY TO CALCULATE THE "T".  I know this isn't a pure science, but being off a week or more on a T lasting less than a month, seems a little too much.  I'm concerned that I'm calculating these Ts incorrectly. 

 I hope you can cover this in Sunday's Audio.  I greatly appreciate the work you do.  Sincerely, Alex      

Download ADLine 20090918 with notes

Download Daily chart   Download SRT20090918

Todays audio commentary   Download TTO20090920

 

Update for Wednesday September 16 2009  The TRIN closed yesterday at 1.74 which is bullish now. This update will answer questions on trin or Arms Ratio. Note the info taken from this page:

Markets Diary: Closing Snapshot - Markets Data Center - WSJ.com

which for Tuesday, the day in question was  Download WSJData20090915

with Arms/Trin defined as   Download Arms Definition

Then listen to Terry's Audio Commentary on how to interpret ARMS/TRIN Data;

Commentary Download TTO20090916

Update for Sunday September 13 2009   Good Question from Jon;

Terry: I greatly appreciate the work you do and wonder if you might address the possibility you mentioned a while back that the seasonality and mystery t might advance the top date a bit from the projected OCT 15 date.  There are a cluster of fib and phi mate dates in end of September.We are in what appears to be a rising wedge. Shouldn't one be gradually selling into strength here as a possibility exists the two tops might lead to a very fast decline and trap us?    Thanks, Jon

             Chart Download SRT20090911

            Audio Commentary Download TTO20090913

Update for Sunday September 6 2009 

Daily Chart Download SRT20090906

Audio Commentary Download TTO20090906

Good thoughts from Jeffery Young    Download NYSE Volume Oscillator

Terry Laundry's T Theory Observations for August 2009

Terry's New email address for this site is terry@ttheory.com

The chart for August 31 with next days Calculation is presented in the Saturday tutorial for the volume  oscillator calculation below-Updated.

For T Theory Tutorials go to this link T Theory Foundation 

 Special Update Sept 2 2009 Listen to the audio here  Download TTO20090902

Update for Sunday August 30 2009 If the audio server becomes overloaded and rejects your request just come back in an hour or so. Jeffery Young has provided a PDF of his A-D Ts Download Advance_Decline T Drawing and comments " Take a look at the different T's I drew (attachment) using different center post dates for the A/D line. Quite a few of them come out but the interesting T is the green one that would mature on Sept 14th which is within a day or two of the maturity of the mystery volume oscillator T. I could be wrong but it is likely more than just coincidence. The Chinese market may also be tracing what might happen here with the recent high (our September high) and the steep drop and then moving to a new high a month or so later (our maturing of the October T). Just some thoughts and possible outcomes. I would not be surprised if the China A/D line had similar T's since they printed earlier than ours and became leading examples due to the strength of their economy."  Jeffrey Young         jeffreyisyoung@yahoo.com

Daily Chart with Ts Download SRT20090818wts

Terry's Audio Commentary of the T Theory Forecast:  Download TTO20090830commentary

Terry's Questions and Answers for the week  Download TTO20090830Q&A

George's web site   George Rahal

Comment I am writing you today because I began my own blog, and I use an loose version of your T-theory. I reference you when I use it, but I realized that you may not want someone else posting blogs using your method. I will include some links of how I used them. If you have a problem with this, let me know, and I will remove the posts. Also, for your information, I use Ts when day trading. I create intra-day Ts based on on balance volume. I find they work very well 65-75% of the time. They can range from a few hours to 50 minutes.

Thank you,     George

'-------------------

Sept 1 The calculation procedures are revised below and sample calculation will be made daily this week.

Update for Saturday August 29 2009 This weekend I am providing an update that includes the popular request for calculation assistance for the volume oscillator which follows below. The starting point is the chart data so that link comes first. The procedure may yet have some bugs, send corrections to my email address. To be continued Sunday

Download SRT090828

Calculation of the T Theory Daily Volume Oscillator

To calculate the progression of the blue Volume Oscillator as depicted in my daily chart above you  need to recalculate the  18 day and 36 day Volume oscillator values  that are noted in the chart for each successive day beyond this chart's history.  The formulas used are very simple because they are based on exponential moving averages and use recursive equations that are easy to implement in any spreadsheet software package.  Click on the chart PDF image for a  view of the daily August 28 2009 volume oscillator indicators at the top of the chart.

I am providing  these examples of daily calculations  in the daily chart which you can use to check your own calculations or restart the process. I won't have time to answer specific questions but of course I will make any corrections and listen to suggestions on improvements.  If you have an arithmetic problem, it should be easy to find someone that understand the simple math involved.  Using a simple spreadsheet is best; it is easy to set up, fast to use, and makes the arithmetic  error free. 

Super trader Marty  Schwartz who used this oscillator for some decades claims that one is better prepared to use the day to day pattern for finding bottoms or  tops if you plot the oscillator values by hand on real graph paper. Watching the pattern for tops and bottoms evolve from one day to the next gives one better perspective  on how this volume oscillator tends to anticipate changes in price trends.  The computer generated chart is helpful, but he claims the day to day plot helps to get the better feel for it's leading characteristics.

Each day after the market close you will need to obtain the net on balance  volume data for the NY Exchange. This can be obtained anywhere but is conveniently available on the web in a market summary section. The data is almost always in a Market Diaries section. See this recommended page Markets Diary: Closing Snapshot - Markets Data Center - WSJ.com

Be sure you  find the number of millions of share traded on the advancing stocks (called the Up volume) and  the number of millions of share traded on the Declining stocks ( called the Down Volume) . These numbers will typically run in the range of 300 to 1200. The Up Volume minus the Down Volume = the net volume for the day (in millions of shares) is the only day's number needed to complete the calculation. The number should be positive on an up day, negative on a down day and tends to vary in the range of  plus  900 to minus 900. 

But to keep the  final number in a better range  for plotting by hand on graph paper, I take this raw net volume and divide it by 10. So this Reduced Net Volume Change  figure is the value  we actually use in the calculation. When charted the volume oscillator generally falls in the 100 plus or minus range which more convenient for plotting.

The Calculation of the next day's 18 Day Volume Oscillator  is simply a modification of the prior day's value of the 18 Day Volume Oscillator using the new day's Reduced  Net Volume number: 

Today's 18 Day Volume Oscillator = 90% of Yesterdays 18 Day Volume Oscillator +1 times Today's Reduced Net Volume.

Today's 36 Day Volume Oscillator = 95% of Yesterday's 36 Day Volume Oscillator 0.5 times Today's Reduced Net Volume.

To Illustrate the calculation I will discuss how the next days Volume Oscillator value would be calculated from the  August 28 2009 data in the chart. 

 

For August 28 2009 the chart notes the  18 Day VO= 259.8 and the 36 Day VO= 227.9. The blue Volume Oscillator we really want is always  equal to 18 Day VO -36 Day VO,  that is (259.8-227.9)  = +31.8 according to the chart but should be 31.9 according to readings. The discrepancy is just a round off error in the chart's  print process. 

Monday August 31 saw the Up Volume was 273 million shares, and the Down Volume was = 1094  million shares; the  Net Volume for Monday would be 273-1094= -821 and the Reduced Net Volume  therefore would be plus -82 (-82.1 more precisely but not necessary).

The August 31 18 Day Volume Oscillator is always = 90% of Yesterdays 18 Day Volume Oscillator (259.8) +1 time Todays Net Volume (-84).

So = 259.8 times 0.9 (which is 233.8) + (-82) times 1 (which is -82)= 233.8 + -82 which equals 137 for the 18 Day Volume Oscillator

The August 31 Day Volume Oscillator always  = 95% of Yesterdays 36 Day Volume Oscillator  +0.5 times Todays Net Volume . 

So  227.9 times .95 (which is 216.5) + -84 times 0.5 (which is 41) =216.5-41 which equals 175 for the 36 Day Volume Oscillator

So for August 31 this sample calculation, the final  Volume Oscillator calculation would be Today's 18 Day VO - Todays 36 Day VO, that is  137-175= -37 . 

For Sept 1 up volume=90 mill  Down vol =1533   Net =-1443; Net Reduced=-144

18 day vo=136(151 times 0.9)-144= -8;  36 day vo= 166 (175 times 0.95)-72( -144 times 0.5)=94;  VO=  -8-94= -102

will continue these daily calcs  this week here.

Download SRT20090831

Terry Laundry

Quick Update for Wed Aug 26:  T Theory tutorials are now available at ttheoryfoundation.org  or use link here:  T Theory Foundation

Hint: Let the audio download progress until it is complete before clicking on the play button. If you don't and have a slow connection the audio may abort. Some features are not yet implemented however you can email questions/comments on the tutorial subject matter to my Foundation Mailbox. More on Sunday

Update for Sunday August 23 2009   Today's  Topics include; T Theory Tutorial coming this week, a look at the Volume Oscillator S&P chart vs the Advance-Decline Line S&P chart and their relationship, the volume oscillator Mystery T, the need to understand the volume oscillator wave pattern in detail, and my response to most all of the questions received last week. Look over the two daily PDF charts  then listen to my long Audio Commentary.

S&PvsVolOsc TDownload SRvoT20090823

S&PvsA-D line Download SRadT20090821

Audio Commentary Download TTO20090823

Next update coming on Sunday by late afternoon

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Quick update for August 18 2009- The reaction should be  finding a bottom here or over the next few days. Watch for turning pattern in the oscillator or the market. Market should see new highs  by early Sept.

Update for Sunday August 16 2009   Today's  Topics include; Questions and my Answers (Q&A) to; what happens after Oct, where do I learn about T Theory,  Greg asks "Marty:day trader or T Theory", what about rally last week, where to get data for volume oscillator, what about Gold, why is Oct peak is in seasonally weak period, Ji comments by Marty in Stock Wizards, etc.

Audio Download TTO20090816

Today's Chart Download SRT20090814

Audio Correction; it was Greg not Jeff who asked about day trading vs T Theory

For Stock Wizards article go to:

Market Wizards: Interviews with Top ... - Google Books

Markets Diary: Closing Snapshot - Markets Data Center - WSJ.com

About Oscillator calculation  from Rick ( It was 12180/1000= 12.1  error is due to data differences-Terry)

Thanks for your help here as I am beating my head against the wall. From the websitehttp://www.mcoscillator.com/data/osc_data/OSC-DATA.xls  I am taking data from the NYSE UV-DV column as the starting point or should I use the McClellan UV-DV OSc column then divide by 10?

McClellan Volume Oscillator

NYSE10%5%McCMcC VOLUV-DV FORUV-DV FORUV-DVTRENDTRENDUV-DVSUMMATIONOSC UNCH'DOSC TO 0(x 1000)UV-DVUV-DVOSCINDEXTOMORROWTOMORROW

948490	309845	203881	105964	1085132	415809	-1703474
420739	320935	214724	106211	1191343	427145	-1697068
807538	369595	244365	125230	1316573	494825	-2009781
-17631	330872	231265	99607	1416181	430480	-1561670
867914	384576	263097	121479	1537660	506056	-1923528
19721	348091	250928	97162	1634822	445253	-1497996
-738718	239410	201446	37964	1672786	277374	-481904
730227	288492	227885	60607	1733393	349098	-863033
381409	297783	235561	62222	1795615	360006	-884436
-640835	203922	191742	12180	1807795	216102	-27500

 

Feel like I am close to getting this right and once it is then their will be an updated template for others to use as well. 

 

Rick

---

Update for Sunday August 9 2009   Today's  Topics include; The very short term way of looking at T Theory as per the  comments above;

First we will look at the  Short Term picture using the A-D Line then I will comment on the small T, etc.

Daily A-D Chart Download SRTad20090807

Audio Commentary Download TTO20090809a

Then  we will take the same history in terms of the volume oscillator and look at it from Marty's very short term trading perspective, maybe 7 days or so.

Daily Vol Chart Download SRTvo20090807

Daily Audio Vol Chart Commentary Download TTO20090809b

Finally I will answer the question of when a top to the China market might occur  and why my volume oscillator numbers don't quite match those of McClellan site noted at the bottom of these charts.

Q and A has been re-recorded due to a mic problem.

Audio Q and A Download TTO20090809c

Send any new questions or comments  to terry.laundry@comcast.net

Next update next Sunday August 16

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Update for Sunday August 2 2009   Today's  Topics include; 

1. Discussion of the small black T in the AD Line chart that calls for a small, short correction next week.

2. A review of my companies July 31 2009 report and introduction to the concept of "benchmarking".

See the  daily Indicator PDF chart below then listen to the audio commentary that follows:

Short Range Indication Chart Download SRT20090731

AudioCommentary Short Term Download TTO20090802

Then read my one page report to clients that  begins to talk about strategies and other concepts to maximize the  longer term A-D Line Ts  rate of return for investments and the Audio Commentary that follows.

ASIC Report Download 2009.07 Report.web

AudioCommentary ASIC Report Download TTO20090802b

Next Update Sunday Aug 9

Terry Laundry's T Theory Observations for July 2009

Update for Sunday July 26 2009  Today's 3 Topics include;

1. Comments on Cycle Theory inversion problems, Walter Bressert's cycle software, and Debbie's email address: eminisp@comcast.net  for info on the cycle program.

2. General theory of Advance-Decline Ts and Carls hint on setting up www.stockcharts.com to plot $NYAD and the need to select "cumulative" from the chart's "type" menu.

3. Calculation of the Big A-D T Data (A= June 4 2007; B=Nov 20 2008;C=March 8 2009) which computes Projected next major peak near August 26 2010 and 

Calculation of the small new Short Range T; Data (a= March 18 2009; b=Jun 23 2009   c= July 10 2009) so the next projected short term peak is near Oct 15 2009.

Listen to the three Audio files below for the respective topics and view the the two companion charts also below for the B and C topics respectively.

 Todays topics commentary Download TTO20090726a

Audio Inversion Problem Download TTO20090726b

Audio Chart Download TTO20090726c

Chart Download 1966-98 A-D Ts vs NYIndex

 Chart Download Great 1987 T

AudioComments on AD Daily ChartDownload TTO20090726d

ADShortTerm Download ADdailyChart20090723

Next update Sunday August 2 2009

Update for Sunday July 19 2009  See the Daily AD Line PDF Chart below for the short term outlook then listen to the two daily Audio Commentaries that follows. (Complete) 

Topics in today's discussion include; re-confirmation of the Advance-Decline T that projects a bull market into the summer of 2010; reasons why investors can't make money in the post 2000 market, and Terry's comments on gold related investments as requested by viewers.

Download ADLine0090716

Download TTO20090719a

Audio Comment #2Download TTO20090719b

Next update Sunday July 26

Special Update 8:00 AM Wed July 15 Strength today will confirm a new T with good upside as per my original forecast.  I will post a chart this evening by 7 PM with commentary.

See the regular Daily PDF Chart below for the newly confirmed Short Range T then listen to the daily Commentary that follows.

New T Chart Download SRT20090715

Audio Commentary Download TTO20090715

Update for Sunday July 12 2009  See the regular Daily PDF Chart below for the short term outlook based on my Envelope Theory then listen to the daily Commentary that follows. Finally note Debbie's helpful hint on the Keltner Channels below. Also note the three solutions to Audio Problems that I posted  just down the page.

DailyChart Download SRT20090710

Audio Comment Download TTO20090712

In the email comment department, I have had a number of requests  as how to duplicate the envelopes and its theory as we  discussed last week.  Debbie has responded with a comment that she has had good trading luck with the Keltner bands on TradeStation.  I see Keltner Bands are also listed as an plotting option at StockCharts.com as well. Experiment with the parameters  to find  what you want. You can play with StockCharts for free.

Audio Problem Solutions for New Site Category  July 7 2009 The following viewer responses to the general question of hearing the Audio commentary should help those that are having problems:

Harry's June 16th 2009 comment was: Had problems then restarted my Windows computer. Deleted the temp files from the temp cache. Also I clear history file. Afterwards the charts and Audio come up just fine.

Vito's June 28 2009 comment was: I had many problems with the audio and it was the" Windows Media Player". I needed to reinstall the player on a number of occasions because it would not load. I would click on your link and nothing would happen or it would play with skips and starts or just stop in the middle and on and on, MSFT has a website that helped me fix the problems I was having. Here is their URL address.

http://answers.microsoft.com/en-us/windows/default.aspx

Carlos July 7 2009 Comment To avoid Microsoft problems, I use VLC (free) to play your audio (and most other media).
http://www.videolan.org/vlc/

 I will be revising and adding additional features to the category list in response to comments I receive. 

Terry Laundry

 

Update for Sunday July 5 2009  See the regular Daily PDF Chart below for the short term outlook based on my Envelope Theory then listen to the daily Commentary Part 1that follows.

Daily Chart Download SRT20090702 

Daily Chart Comments Download TTO20090705

Continue the envelope theory discussion by remembering the long term chart below. See June 7/8 discussion down the page for the chart details. Then listen to the Envelope Theory discussion Part 2 below.

SuperCycle Chart Download MegaTBand20090430 

Download TTO20090705b

Next Update next Sunday.

Terry Laundry's T Theory Observations for June 2009

Special Update for June 30/July 1 2009 

See The 15 minute chart below for a very short term peak projection late Thursday July 2 then listen to Terry's audio commentary that follows for the interpretation.

Chart Download Graphic 15minT20090630

Audio Download TTO20090630

Update for Sunday June 28 2009  Download the Daily Chart below then listen to the audio commentary for Terry's  T Theory discussion.

Daily Chart Download SRT20090626

Terry's Audio Commentary Download TTO20090628

New Update next Sunday

Special Update for Wed June 23 2009  New T Likely Starting. See Chart and Listen to Audio

Chart  Download SRT20090623

Audio  Download TTO20090623

Updates for Sunday June 21 2009  Download the charts below then listen to the audio commentary for my T Theory discussion.

Daily Indicator Chart Download SRT20090619

Hi Yield Bond T Chart Download FAGIXBond Ts

Audio Commentary Download TTO20090621

See Update for Monday February 16 2009 below for confidence Indicator intro

Download Confidence Indicator Chart FAGIX-FIBIX090210

Updates for Sunday and Monday June 14/15 2009 .  This weeks near term market outlook  is now completed for Sunday. A separate post on Monday will discuss longer term issues as replies to recent questions.  For Sunday look over both the 3 Daily PDF charts   below  then listen to Terry's Sunday mp3 audio comments that follow. 

Daily Indicator Chart Download SRT20090612

AD TChart Download ADLineT20090612

15 Min S&P Chart Download S&P15min090612

Audio Commentary Download TTO20090614

Monday's Update  features a 1995-2009 chart of the S&P 500 vs Advance Decline Line as an into to the big A-D  T Theory. This is followed by a Q and A session of email questions and my answers.

Chart Download BigS&PvsADLine1995

Audio Chart CommentaryDownload TTO20090615c

Download TTO20090615q+a

Next Update  next Sunday for the shorter term  and Monday for the longer term.

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Update for Sunday and Monday June 7/8 2009.  This weeks update is in progress but won't be complete until Monday due to replies to very interesting questions.  For now look over both the Daily PDF chart   below  then listen to Terry's Sunday mp3 audio comments that follow. 

Daily Chart Download SRT20090605

Sunday Audio Download TTO20090607

For Monday I have reproduced my long term  chart below then added two segments of audio commentary.

SuperCycle Chart Download MegaTBand20090430

Audio Part 1 Download TTO20090608a

Audio Part 2 Download TTO20090608b

Next update in a week, Sunday or Monday, as my time permits

Download TTO20090621

Terry Laundry's T Theory Observations for May 2009

Update for Sunday May 31 2009   Please look over both the Daily PDF chart   below  then listen to Terry's mp3 audio comments that follow.   Daily Chart  Download SRT20090529

Audio Commentary Download TTO20090531

Next update June 8 2009

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Update for Monday May 25 2009   Please look over both the Daily PDF chart   below  then listen to Terry's mp3 audio comments that follow.

Daily Chart  Download SRT20090522

AudioCommentaryDownload TTO20090525

Next update June 1 2009

Update for Monday May 18 2009   Please look over both the Daily PDF chart  and the 200 year SuperCycle PDF charts below  then listen to Terry's mp3 audio comments that follow. During June I will provide an email address for you to submit questions concerning these two concepts and I will use them as a guide for future discussions. Update: I have published my contact point for questions at the upper left.

Daily Chart  Download SRT20090515

AudioCommentaryDownload TTO20090518

SuperCycle Chart Download MegaTBand20090430 (For next weeks discussion)

Next update May 25 2009

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Update for Monday May 11 2009   Please see the Daily PDF Chart below then listen to Terry's mp3 audio comments that follow.

Chart Download SRT20090508

Audio Download TTO20090511 

(small correction: At end said 2002 but meant 2020)

Next update  Monday May 18th

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Update for Monday May 4 2009  Please see the Daily PDF Chart below then listen to Terry's mp3 audio comments that follow.

ChartPDF Download SRT20090501

mp3Audio Download TTO20090504

Next update  Monday May 11th

T Theory Observations for April 2009

Update for Monday April 27 2009 (Update complete)  See the Daily  Chart below then listen to the audio comments that follow.

Chart Download NewADTfor2009

Audio Download TTO20090427

Next update  Monday May 4th

Update for Monday April 20 2009   See the Daily  Chart below

Download SRT20090417

Comments; The Current T is projecting a rise to end of May/Early June and doing fine for this period, however the small blue channel sketched in the S&P suggests the market is very short term over extended and need a correction before resuming the T's  advance.

Next update  Monday April 27th

Update for Monday April 13 2009  (Update completed ) See the Daily  Chart below

Download SRT20090409

then listen to the audio file commentary file here.Download TTO090413

Next update  Monday April 20th

Update for Monday April 6 2009  (Update completed ) See the Daily  Chart below

Download MCHFX with T 

then listen to the audio file commentary file here.Download TTO20090406

Next update  Monday April 13th

T Theory Observations for March 2009

Update for Monday March 30 2009  See the Daily Indicator Chart at the right  Download SRT090327

then listen to the audio update here Download TTO20090330

Update for Monday March 23 2009  See the Daily Indicator Chart at the right  Download SRT090320

then listen to the audio update here Download TTO090323

Next Update Monday March 30

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Update for Monday March 16 2009  See the Daily Indicator Chart at the right  Download SRT090313 then listen to the audio update here.Download TTO090316

Special topic that follows shows charts of  the bear market trends  for the 1929-32 bear market and the 1973-74 bear market all relative to the 55 day MA .

 Download 1929-1932 Bear Market for Dow Industrials  

 Download 1973-1974 Bear Market 

See the two charts above then the audio commentary below.

Download Observations090316BearTrends1929and1973

Next Update Monday March 23

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Update Note March 12 2009- Strength today will confirm a new T but I think the rally will prove very dangerous to follow. Terry

Update for Monday March 9 2009 (update Complete) 

See Daily Indicator Chart at the right.Download SRT090306 

Then listen to this mp3 audio commentary...Download Audio Obs090309

Next Update Monday March 16

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Update for Monday March 2 2009 (update completed) 

See Daily Indicator Chart then listen to the mp3 audio commentary below.Download SRT090227 

Download Audio Update 20090302 

Next update will be Monday March 9 2009